It’s Not the Impact You Think It Is

But Some Folks Don’t Get It

You may have heard (or seen in the news) about an asteroid that’s due to pass close to Earth on January 29 (next Tuesday). It’s called 2007 TU24, it’s about the size of the Sears Tower in Chicago, and it will flash past at a distance of about 537,000 kilometers. To put it in perspective, the Moon lies 383,180 kilometers away, so this thing isn’t getting as close to us as the Moon is.

This is a rare chance for astronomers to image a near-Earth asteroid and use instruments such as the Arecibo radio telescope to accurately measure its size, spin rate, and orbital speed.

Stuff like this passes near our planet rather frequently; after all, space is full of debris left over from the formation of the solar system, and not all of it has been swept up by planets, moons, and ring systems. That’s the beauty of having an evolving planetary system. Now that we have good instrumentation, we can study these pieces of debris and learn a variety of things: what they’re made of; and from their orbital measurements, we can figure out the larger picture of orbital dynamics. And, of course, we can learn more about how to spot these things and determine if (and very, very rarely when) they might pose a threat to the planet.

Now, there are a few whack jobs out there who are using this upcoming event to draw attention to themselves by making outrageous claims. It’s the usual huffing and puffing and uninformed bloviating about how NASA is hiding evidence that the rock is actually going to HIT Earth, yadda, yadda, yadda. And I have to wonder just how much physics these folks ever studied, or doing a general orbit calculation isn’t rocket science—kids in high-school math and physics probably cut their teeth on these things in middle school these days) and I’m here to tell you it’s not difficult. And what you learn tells you pretty quickly just how much chance there is an impact vs. a flyby.

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