Category Archives: medical science, epidemiology

Thoughts about Science and COVID-19

I’ve written about science for many years, mostly space and astronomy topics. It’s actually quite satisfying to do this work. I get notices of people’s scientific accomplishments, and I get to tell their stories. It is, after all, people doing science. It just doesn’t do itself. The planets and stars and galaxies will continue to do their thing. Our observations of those objects and their activities will help us understand them. Same with any other science.

Science is a process of discovery. It doesn’t stop at one “aha!” moment. Science discovery continues from one moment to the next, as new data comes in. Data points are the core of science. Gather enough data and you have something to talk about, to make models of, to construct theories and rules about what you have observed. That’s the way science works.

So, for example, in the current pandemic crisis, what science can do is gather data points about rates of infection. That information is gold because it helps us do more to help prevent the spread of the disease and help those who have it. We can also learn how to avoid getting it based on data.

For this one, researchers need a LOT of information. They can use data from places where the infection rate is rising or falling. They need information about who is affected and how it was spread. Scientists can look at who survives and who doesn’t, and what measures were taken to help the survivors. Researchers also need data about populations and relative rates of infection over time. And, they can use this and other information to figure out how best to treat it, where to send much-needed medical equipment, and so on.

Oh, and they can work toward creating a usable vaccine. That seems pretty straightforward. And, that’s how it should work.

Science Denialism

There are people in the world who don’t like science. They fear it. Or they fear what it might tell them. Or they fear what it might say about their political “leadership”. So, they deny it. Or they threaten the scientists doing the work of understanding things.

In most cases, people deny facts that are clearly right in front of them. We are seeing a lot of that today, with the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 epidemic it is causing. In addition to the truly silly conspiracy theories about the sickness, there are people who are spinning data points out of context, or simply not collecting or reporting data at all.

There are likely political reasons behind the slow reporting of infections. However, there are also some practical reasons and those need to be overcome. One of the biggest issues is that there aren’t enough tests being made available in the U.S. to definitively test everyone who may have the virus.

Another obstacle: not everyone who has the virus shows symptoms. As in any other science, medical people have to have actual examples of the subject in front of them. In medicine, someone with symptoms gives them information. Someone without any symptoms isn’t going to present themselves. And, thus, medical researchers and doctors can’t even begin to consider if someone has the virus or not.

In addition, folks without symptoms have no way of knowing that they do have it. That also contributes to a lack of data. And, strong science requires strong data points. Science about this virus and its effects needs better reporting. That’s a fact. It will help people learn WHY social distancing is so important, why staying home and following cleanliness guidelines may help save their lives or the life of a loved one.

I hope that more data will be reported. As doctors and others get a handle on the many side effects of this virus, how the illness it causes presents itself, and other aspects of the epidemic, I want to see them get what they need to know. It’s the only way to understand this particular pandemic.


Just the Facts, Please

We all should hope that medical science gets what it needs. Our lives depend on it. Our societies can’t function without more information. Scientists can’t make headway on understanding this illness or the virus without information. Worldwide honest reporting of data is important. This isn’t the time for political posturing or national pride that might prevent accurate numbers from getting out. Just the facts: they are the heart of science.

I Believe the Virus Science

By now, most of us have heard about the COVID-19 virus (novel coronavirus is another name for it) making the rounds of the world. It’s real. It’s making people sick. Some of them may not make it. Many will recover. But, the fact is: it’s a pandemic and it’s going to affect a lot of people.

How many will fall to this virus? The numbers could be staggering, partly because the onset has seemed so sudden. Such pandemics don’t occur every year, but they do happen. We’ve seen stories about the Spanish Flu early in the 20th Century, and SARS and others. This one has been coming on for months.

I’m not a doctor nor qualified to give medical advice, but I can echo what so many other qualified experts have been trying to tell us: it’s coming and there are steps we can take to avoid getting it, or spreading it if we DO get it.

Virus Review

Viruses are like bad political ideas or trashy tabloid stories from Fox News: they don’t care who or what you are or what you believe in or who you voted for. They just want to hitch a ride with the first handy carrier they can find. Viruses are physical beings that exist to live and reproduce. Unfortunately, our bodies are unwitting hosts, as people around the world are finding out. Our habits of mingling together (and yes, we ARE a social species) give the viruses a stress-free way to freeload around the world. Works for them. Not so great for us.

Fixing the Virus Problem

This virus is spreading through personal contact and through ingestion of virus-laden droplets that we either breathe in or pick up from other people or surfaces that they’ve been in contact with.

Science and scientific understanding of how this thing is spreading, and how a vaccine may be devised, are key to getting through this pandemic. Equally important: individual action. Those are going to help us. Not magical toothpaste. Nor voodoo economics. And thoughts and prayers, while giving warm feelings, don’t actually do any physical healing or scare off the virus.

Nope.

Understanding and dealing with it are all about science and human behavior: epidemiology and medical science, plus retraining ourselves and our social activities. In reality, the spread of a virus is largely due to our own habits. It’s true. We travel. We meet. We greet. All vectors for the virus to spread.

For those who do get sick from COVID-19, a lot depends on the medical facilities available to them. At the very least, hospitals and other medical “shops” are going to get a LOT busier. They’ll be a lot less available to everybody who wants to use them. And, testing for possible cases helps us track the progress of the epidemic and make some predictions about how long it will last, where it goes next, etc. Unfortunately, testing (at least in the U.S.) is still way behind the curve. Many people are probably carrying the virus but don’t yet have symptoms. They may or may not get tested and will be vectors for the further spread of COVID-19.

Cease and Resist the Virus

Despite all this unfortunate news about COVID-19, we can take action to keep the death rate from spiraling completely out of control. There are two primary ways:

  • washing your hands (resisting the virus by killing it); and,
  • social isolation (sometimes called voluntary quarantine, essentially ceasing all unnecessary contact with other people for a while).

Those sound simple, and they are. Of the two, washing your hands is the direct route to killing the virus that you’ve picked up.

Yes, there are times when essential personnel need to be out and about. That’s understandable. And, yes, there are workers whose employers don’t give the patootie of a rat about their wellbeing and thus require them to come to work (and don’t offer sick pay). Those people are going to be hard hit. But, as much as possible, as many of us as possible should limit public forays. If that means working from home, cancelling trips, conferences, etc., then that’s what we have to do. In two words: that sucks. But, it’s reality.

The Bottom Line on COVID-19

We have to let the medical folks and the epidemiologists do their work, without government interference. These scientists are capable of giving us straight answers, which, in turn, will help us make our way through this epidemic. The med folks are going to be overwhelmed with the numbers of sufferers that are predicted to show up at Urgent Care clinics and emergency rooms. We have only to look at what’s happening in Italy to see a fair reproduction of what we in North America may soon face.

Want to know more about how the epidemic numbers are being calculated? Check out this very useful (if long) article. Yes, it has math, but it’s EASY math. It deals with the facts pretty well, and it has been updated as needed. Also surf over to this coronavirus tracker, updated all day long, for updates on cases in each country.

In the meantime, if you can manage it, stay home as much as possible. Avoid large crowds. Postpone travel if you can. If you HAVE to go out, wash your hands each time you have contact with people and possible contaminated surfaces. (And, assume that everything is carrying the virus.) Hot water, soap, and 30 seconds of washing should kill the virus. Rely on hand sanitizer only as a last resort—it won’t kill the virus, but it does kill other buggies.

About that toilet paper everybody’s rushing out to buy? Tree-based rear-wiping solutions are SO 20th Century. Maybe it’s time to consider a spray bidet for your bathroom. Greatest invention (for the loo) since the flush toilet. It’ll cut your use of ancient trees quite a bit (which means you won’t be paying top dollar for TP) and still keep you feeling minty fresh while you’re sitting at home in endless Zoom conferences with your co-workers.

Stay safe, stay well, and help keep others well, too!